Bubba's Ledger
One official Bubba estimate per market, snapshotted at entry and graded against the real Kalshi settlement. No per-user double-counting. No cherry-picking.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Information only — never advice.
| Category | Graded | Hit rate | Avg gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 31 | 35% | -7.9 | 0.227 |
| Politics | 12 | 25% | -12.2 | 0.218 |
| Culture | 7 | 57% | -6.0 | 0.265 |
| uncategorized | 1 | 100% | -2.0 | 0.000 |
| Market | Bubba | Market | Outcome | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Who will be the next Prime Minister of the UK? — Nigel Farage Politics · KXNEXTUKPM-30-NF | 0% | 0% | NO | MISS |
Will President of France be the first to leave office? — Emmanuel Macron Politics · KXG7LEADEROUT-45JAN01-EMAC | 10% | 5% | NO | MISS |
Who will be the next Prime Minister of the UK? — Al Carns Politics · KXNEXTUKPM-30-ACAR | 1% | 3% | NO | HIT |
Who will be the next Prime Minister of the UK? — Andy Burnham Politics · KXNEXTUKPM-30-ABUR | 0% | 1% | YES | MISS |
Which G7 leader will leave next? — Friedrich Merz Politics · KXG7LEADEROUT-45JAN01-FMER | 0% | 0% | NO | MISS |
Will the Spain win the 2026 Men's World Cup? — Spain Sports · KXMENWORLDCUP-26-ES | 14% | 17% | YES | MISS |
Will the France win the 2026 Men's World Cup? — France Sports · KXMENWORLDCUP-26-FR | 18% | 16% | NO | MISS |
Will Conor McGregor fight next? — Mike Perry — · KXMCGREGORFIGHTNEXT-28-MPER | 0% | 0% | NO | HIT |
Will the Norway win the 2026 Men's World Cup? — Norway Sports · KXMENWORLDCUP-26-NO | 5% | 3% | NO | MISS |
Will the Portugal win the 2026 Men's World Cup? — Portugal Sports · KXMENWORLDCUP-26-PT | 8% | 11% | NO | HIT |
Will the Brazil win the 2026 Men's World Cup? — Brazil Sports · KXMENWORLDCUP-26-BR | 15% | 8% | NO | MISS |
Will Patrick Mahomes be a Groomsman for the wedding of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift? — Patrick Mahomes Culture · KXTRAVISKELCEWEDDING-30JAN01-PAT | 55% | 71% | NO | HIT |
Where will Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce’s Wedding occur? — New York Culture · KXSWIFTKELCEWEDDINGLOCATION-30-NEW | 25% | 72% | YES | MISS |
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce: Wedding location — Rhode Island Culture · KXSWIFTKELCEWEDDINGLOCATION-30-RHO | 0% | 0% | NO | HIT |
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the next Peruvian presidential election? — Roberto Sánchez Politics · KXPERUPRES-26-RPAL | 2% | 4% | NO | HIT |
Who will win the next Peruvian presidential election? — Keiko Fujimori Politics · KXPERUPRES-26-KFUJ | 35% | 73% | YES | MISS |
Will the US issue a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan? — Before Jul 1, 2026 Politics · KXTAIWANLVL4-26JUL01 | 0% | 0% | NO | MISS |
Will the Netherlands win the 2026 Men's World Cup? — Netherlands Sports · KXMENWORLDCUP-26-NL | 6% | 5% | NO | MISS |
Grand Theft Auto VI: PS5 price — More than $90 Culture · KXGTAPRICE-90 | 0% | 0% | NO | HIT |
What will the price of GTA VI be? — More than $100 Culture · KXGTAPRICE-100 | 5% | 3% | NO | MISS |
Grand Theft Auto VI: PS5 price — More than $70 Culture · KXGTAPRICE-70 | 1% | 1% | YES | HIT |
Grand Theft Auto VI: PS5 price — More than $80 Culture · KXGTAPRICE-80 | 0% | 0% | NO | MISS |
Makerfield by-election winner? — Reform UK Politics · KXMAKERFIELDBY-27JAN01-REF | 0% | 0% | NO | MISS |
Makerfield by-election winner? — Labour Politics · KXMAKERFIELDBY-27JAN01-LAB | 1% | 1% | YES | HIT |
Will Vegas Golden Knights win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals? — Vegas Golden Knights Sports · KXNHL-26-VGK | 5% | 63% | NO | HIT |
Will New York win 4-1 in the New York vs San Antonio Pro Basketball Finals series in the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoffs? — NYK wins 4-1 Sports · KXNBASERIESSCORE-26NYKSASFIN-NYK41 | 18% | 20% | YES | MISS |
Who will win Finals MVP? — Jalen Brunson Sports · KXNBAFINMVP-26-JBRU | 35% | 48% | YES | MISS |
Who will win Finals MVP? — Karl-Anthony Towns Sports · KXNBAFINMVP-26-KTOW | 5% | 14% | NO | HIT |
Will OG Anunoby win Finals MVP? — OG Anunoby Sports · KXNBAFINMVP-26-OANU | 5% | 3% | NO | MISS |
Will the New York win the 2026 Pro Basketball Finals? — New York Sports · KXNBA-26-NYK | 55% | 79% | YES | MISS |
Methodology: one official Bubba estimate per market is captured shortly after listing. Each entry is graded once the Kalshi market settles. Hit rate measures directional correctness (did Bubba's gap point the right way). Brier score measures probability calibration (mean of (estimate − outcome)²; lower is better).