Bubba's Ledger
One official Bubba estimate per market, snapshotted at entry and graded against the real Kalshi settlement. No per-user double-counting. No cherry-picking.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Information only — never advice.
| Category | Graded | Hit rate | Avg gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 18 | 39% | -7.3 | 0.274 |
| Politics | 2 | 0% | -17.5 | 0.102 |
| Market | Bubba | Market | Outcome | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Game 4: San Antonio at New York Winner? — New York Sports · KXNBAGAME-26JUN10SASNYK-NYK | 52% | 54% | YES | ✗ MISS |
Game 4: San Antonio at New York Winner? — San Antonio Sports · KXNBAGAME-26JUN10SASNYK-SAS | 52% | 47% | NO | ✗ MISS |
Who will win California's top-two primary for governor? — Tom Steyer Politics · KXGOVCAPRIMARY-26-TSTE | 5% | 3% | NO | ✗ MISS |
Will Francesco Forti win the Bueno vs Forti: Round Of 32 match? — Francesco Forti Sports · KXATPCHALLENGERMATCH-26JUN09BUEFOR-FOR | 30% | 99% | YES | ✗ MISS |
Will Jenson Brooksby win the Zhang vs Brooksby: Round Of 32 match? — Jenson Brooksby Sports · KXATPMATCH-26JUN08ZHABRO-BRO | 38% | 30% | NO | ✗ MISS |
Will Katie Boulter win the Boulter vs Fernandez: Round Of 32 match? — Katie Boulter Sports · KXWTAMATCH-26JUN07BOUFER-BOU | 35% | 27% | YES | ✓ HIT |
Will Linda Fruhvirtova win the Vidmanova vs Fruhvirtova: Round Of 32 match? — Linda Fruhvirtova Sports · KXWTACHALLENGERMATCH-26JUN08VIDFRU-FRU | 55% | 48% | NO | ✗ MISS |
Will Leylah Fernandez win the Boulter vs Fernandez: Round Of 32 match? — Leylah Fernandez Sports · KXWTAMATCH-26JUN07BOUFER-FER | 68% | 71% | NO | ✓ HIT |
Will Darja Vidmanova win the Vidmanova vs Fruhvirtova: Round Of 32 match? — Darja Vidmanova Sports · KXWTACHALLENGERMATCH-26JUN08VIDFRU-VID | 55% | 48% | YES | ✓ HIT |
Game 3: San Antonio at New York Winner? — San Antonio Sports · KXNBAGAME-26JUN08SASNYK-SAS | 52% | 46% | YES | ✓ HIT |
Game 3: San Antonio at New York Winner? — New York Sports · KXNBAGAME-26JUN08SASNYK-NYK | 60% | 55% | NO | ✗ MISS |
Will Donald Trump attend any 2026 Pro Basketball finals game in person? — Yes Politics · KXTRUMPNBAFINALS-26JUN-DJT | 55% | 92% | YES | ✗ MISS |
Will Martin Landaluce win the Herbert vs Landaluce: Round Of 32 match? — Martin Landaluce Sports · KXATPMATCH-26JUN08HERLAN-LAN | 55% | 61% | YES | ✗ MISS |
Will Wyndham Clark win the the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday? — Wyndham Clark Sports · KXPGATOUR-THMTPBW26-WCLA | 0% | 3% | NO | ✓ HIT |
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday? — Tommy Fleetwood Sports · KXPGATOUR-THMTPBW26-TFLE | 2% | 6% | NO | ✓ HIT |
Will Scottie Scheffler win the the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday? — Scottie Scheffler Sports · KXPGATOUR-THMTPBW26-SSCH | 14% | 3% | NO | ✗ MISS |
Will Sam Burns win the the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday? — Sam Burns Sports · KXPGATOUR-THMTPBW26-SBUR | 2% | 8% | NO | ✓ HIT |
Will J.T. Poston win the the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday? — J.T. Poston Sports · KXPGATOUR-THMTPBW26-JPOS | 1% | 40% | YES | ✗ MISS |
Will Alexander Zverev win the French Open? — Alexander Zverev Sports · KXFOMEN-26-ZVE | 25% | 83% | YES | ✗ MISS |
Will Flavio Cobolli win the KXFOMEN-26? — Flavio Cobolli Sports · KXFOMEN-26-COB | 20% | 18% | NO | ✗ MISS |
Methodology: one official Bubba estimate per market is captured shortly after listing. Each entry is graded once the Kalshi market settles. Hit rate measures directional correctness (did Bubba's gap point the right way). Brier score measures probability calibration (mean of (estimate − outcome)²; lower is better).