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Prediction markets, in plain English
Short guides for normal people who want to understand Kalshi prediction markets, how the prices work, and how Bubba reads them. Information only — never advice.
- How Kalshi Works: Prediction Markets Explained in Plain English
What a prediction market actually is, how Kalshi's yes-or-no contracts settle, and why the price IS the crowd's bet on the odds.
- What Does 60 Cents Mean on Kalshi? Price as Probability
How to read a Kalshi price like a probability — and why 60 cents is the market saying "about 60% chance."
- What Is an Edge in Prediction Markets — and Why Gaps Matter
An edge is the gap between your number and the crowd's. Here's what it means, why it's not a guarantee, and how Bubba scores it.
- Are Prediction Markets Accurate? What the Data Shows
What decades of research say about prediction-market accuracy — when they nail it, when they miss, and why calibration beats hit rate.
- Kalshi Fees Explained Simply
How Kalshi's per-contract trading fees and settlement fees work — without the jargon.